Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win with a probability of 45.63%. A win for Dnepr Mogilev had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Dnepr Mogilev win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk in this match.