Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win with a probability of 52.96%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 20.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.08%) and 1-2 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 1-0 (8.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtyor Soligorsk would win this match.