Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 36.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.82%) and 0-2 (5.95%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.