Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 54.22%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 23.82% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (6.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.