Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsberger win with a probability of 45.7%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 29.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsberger win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.