Two sides seeking to assure themselves of a place in the 2021-22 Bundesliga campaign lock horns on Saturday afternoon as Augsburg play host to Werder Bremen.
Markus Weinzierl's side suffered a 2-1 defeat to Stuttgart in their most recent outing, while Bremen managed to claim a point from a goalless draw with Bayer Leverkusen.
Match preview
© Reuters
Weinzierl's first game back in the Augsburg dugout was not an affair to remember for the 46-year-old - previously the Fuggerstadter's head coach between 2012 and 2016 - whose side slipped a little closer to danger with a 2-1 defeat to mid-table Stuttgart at the Mercedes-Benz Arena.
Philipp Forster put Stuttgart ahead before Florian Niederlechner's header seemed destined to rescue a point for Augsburg, but in a turn of events that surprised few, Sasa Kalajdzic won the day for the hosts with a goal 16 minutes from time.
Heiko Herrlich departed Augsburg with the club languishing in 13th in the table, and defeat to Stuttgart has seen the Fuggerstadter drop below a resurgent Hertha Berlin into 14th - two points above the relegation playoff spot and four clear of the bottom two - so an immediate upturn in results is needed if Augsburg are to confirm survival.
Weinzierl's side are highly unlikely to enjoy a positive result against Bayern Munich on the final day of the season, but a win here would at least rule out their chances of automatic relegation, and Augsburg will also be praying for Hoffenheim to do them a favour against Arminia Bielefeld in gameweek 33.
This week's hosts have only claimed one point from the last 15 on offer, but only one of their last five matches at home has ended in defeat - a 3-2 loss to relegation rivals Koln last month - and they have a prime opportunity to boost their survival hopes at the expense of Werder Bremen's this weekend.
© Reuters
After staying up by the skin of their teeth last season, Werder Bremen have not made things easier for themselves this time around, as Florian Kohfeldt desperately tries to find a winning formula before Saturday's crunch match.
Kohfeldt's side did at least manage to snap their seven-game losing streak last time out, though, as neither Bayer Leverkusen nor Werder Bremen could break each other down in a tie that ultimately finished goalless in gameweek 32.
However, that point has done little to boost Bremen's chances of staving off relegation, as the 15th-placed Werderaner sit level on points with Arminia Bielefeld in the relegation playoff spot and two above Koln, who have picked up some crucial victories in recent weeks.
Kohfeldt's men enter this relegation battle on the back of three consecutive defeats away from home - during which time they have conceded eight goals and scored a mere two - and Bremen must hope for a positive result against Borussia Monchengladbach on the final day if the teams around them produce the goods this weekend.
Two strikes in the final 10 minutes saw Bremen claim a 2-0 win over Augsburg when the sides met in January, although the hosts did manage to win the corresponding fixture 2-1 last term, which represents their only success in their last six attempts against Die Werderaner.
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Augsburg confirmed last week that Felix Uduokhai will miss the remainder of the season as he prepares to undergo ankle surgery, while Carlos Gruezo is expected to miss out with a muscular issue.
Alfred Finnbogason is back in team training after battling back from a minor issue, but Michael Gregoritsch is a more likely option to start up top as Finnbogason builds up his match fitness.
Weinzierl left both Fredrik Jensen and Daniel Caligiuri on the bench for his first match in charge, and both players will aim to do enough to start this game.
Werder Bremen youngster Eren Dinkci was sent off after just 10 minutes on the pitch against Leverkusen and will serve a suspension this weekend, but he was never expected to earn a start up top in any case.
Omer Toprak, Marco Friedl and Jean-Manuel Mbom are all expected to miss out, however, while Ludwig Augustinsson is believed to be playing through the pain of a groin injury.
Milot Rashica was introduced after 57 minutes against Leverkusen and will be eyeing a recall to the first XI here, while Yuya Osako is another option for change in the final third.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Oxford, Gouweleeuw, Iago; Caligiuri, Strobl, Khedira, Vargas; Niederlechner, Gregoritsch
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gebre Selassie, Veljkovic, Moisander, Augustinsson; Bittencourt, Gross, Eggestein; Sargent; Fullkrug, Rashica
We say: Augsburg 2-2 Werder Bremen
Both sides will sense an opportunity to all but confirm their safety in the Bundesliga this weekend, and that should lead to an enthralling affair between two sides who otherwise flatter to deceive.
Weinzierl is still re-finding his feet at Augsburg, but the hosts should have no trouble breaching Bremen's leaky defence, although the visitors have the attacking talent needed to secure a point in this pivotal encounter.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 40.36%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-0 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
