Saturday's Bundesliga action includes a huge relegation battle between Augsburg and Hertha Berlin at the WWK Arena.
The hosts have opened up a healthy advantage between themselves and the drop zone thanks to an upturn in form in recent weeks, whilst the visitors remain in huge danger of relegation from the top flight following a heavy derby defeat last weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
After winning three and losing just one of their previous five matches ahead of their trip to the Allianz Arena last weekend, Augsburg had eased some of the pressure off their shoulders in their fight for survival.
That relief of pressure was on display in Fuggerstadter's performance too, as Markus Weinzierl's side put in an outstanding defensive effort to hold league leaders Bayern Munich for much of the contest.
Considering the usual free-flowing displays from Bayern for much of this season, the fact that they were restricted to very little in front of goal was evidence to the fact that Augsburg played so well despite the odds being stacked hugely against them.
However, despite their incredible efforts, Saturday's hosts still came away empty-handed due to Robert Lewandowski's penalty inside the final 10 minutes.
With all four sides below them in the Bundesliga table losing as well though, Augsburg remained unmoved in 14th place, with six points separating themselves from Arminia Bielefeld in the relegation playoff spot.
Therefore, despite being expected to be dragged back into the mix due to their daunting trip to the leaders, Weinzierl's men were let off somewhat, but their performance level remained consistent with the efforts that had earned them wins over Bielefeld, Wolfsburg and Mainz 05 in previous weeks.
If Augsburg can perform as they have done recently then they will certainly possess plenty of confidence in achieving another positive result on Saturday, which would almost certainly confirm their avoidance of automatic relegation come the end of the season.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, whilst their hosts have improved to move away from danger in recent weeks, the visitors' troubles continue to worsen.
Many were surprised when Felix Magath was the new manager tasked with Hertha's survival upon his appointment last month, but after he recorded an incredible 3-0 victory over top-four-chasing Hoffenheim in his first game, albeit with assistant coach Mark Foderingham taking charge on the sidelines due to Magath's COVID-19 isolation, hopes of survival were certainly raised.
However, with the narrow 2-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen being followed by a humiliating 4-1 loss at home to city rivals Union Berlin last weekend, those hopes have quickly been dashed once more.
Genki Haraguchi got the ball rolling for Union in a dominant first half for the visitors, and despite Hertha equalising courtesy of Timo Baumgartl's own goal shortly after half time, the Old Lady were deservedly well beaten in front of a hugely disappointed home faithful.
As mentioned above, the only positive for Hertha to take from last weekend was the fact that all of their direct relegation rivals lost too, but their dreadful derby defeat means they head into matchday 30 inside the relegation zone once more.
Due to being level on points with Bielefeld directly above them in the table, and with being just one point behind Stuttgart in safety, Hertha's chances of survival remain moderately high, but following a single win in 13 matches across all competitions in 2022 - 10 of which ended in defeat - a drastic improvement in form and results are desperately required, beginning in this huge relegation clash at the WWK Arena on Saturday.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Augsburg will remain without Noah Sarenren Bazee, Tobias Strobl and Felix Uduokhai on Saturday, whilst Frederik Winther and Mads Pedersen are doubtful due to illness and COVID-19 respectively.
Robert Gumny was forced off with a knock in the defeat at Bayern last week, and the full-back remains a doubt as a result, with Raphael Framberger in line to deputise if required.
Daniel Caligiuri is another slight doubt due to an ankle problem, but as long as he and Gumny are fit and available, Weinzierl is unlikely to make many, if any, changes to his starting 11 after impressing in recent weeks.
As for the visitors, the muscular injury picked up by Stevan Jovetic in their derby defeat last weekend rubbed salt into their wounds.
The forward is ruled out of Saturday's trip to Augsburg as a result, in a huge blow to their chances, which are worsened further by the continued absence of first-choice goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow.
Rune Jarstein also remains unavailable for selection, so Marcel Lotka will continue in goal.
Davie Selke, Marvin Plattenhardt, Kelian Nsona and Niklas Stark are also struggling with injuries and remain doubts, to leave Magath lacking in options.
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Iago; Hahn, Maier, Dorsch, Vargas; Gregoritsch, Niederlechner
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Lotka; Pekarik, Boyata, Kempf, Mittelstadt; Tousart, Ascacibar; Richter, Darida, Serdar; Belfodil
We say: Augsburg 2-1 Hertha Berlin
With momentum and form certainly in the home side's favour heading into this huge match, we are favouring a vital win for Augsburg on Saturday to hugely improve their chances of survival once more.
Hertha are in serious trouble and there appears to be very little to suggest that they can turn around their disastrous season, so we are predicting for their troubles to worsen further at the WWK Arena.
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Augsburg win with a probability of 47.78%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 27.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Augsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 0-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
