Preview: Augsburg vs. Mainz 05 - prediction, team news, lineups

In what could be an early-season relegation six-pointer in the Bundesliga, Augsburg are set to host Mainz 05 at WWK Arena on Friday.

The home side are 11th with four points after three games and defeated St Pauli 3-1 last time out on September 15, while the visitors lost 2-1 against Werder Bremen on the same date and are fourth last in 15th place with two points from their three league games.

Match preview

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The hosts finished 11th in 2023-24 with 39 points, and while they ended five places above the division's relegation playoff spot, they only tallied six more points than 16th-placed VfL Bochum.

Augsburg have started their 2024-25 Bundesliga campaign in mixed form having drawn their first game 2-2 against Werder Bremen on August 24, lost 4-0 in their second against Heidenheim on September 1 and won against St Pauli in their most recent league match.

Fuggerstadter's win last time out was well deserved given they created nearly three xG, produced six big chances and prevented St Pauli from creating a single big chance themselves.

Manager Jess Thorup said that he was pleased with his side's reaction after their loss against Heidenheim, but that he thought the team looked "nervy" towards the end of their match against St Pauli.

Thorup's team have won just twice in their last nine competitive fixtures, drawing once and losing six times in that period.

Augsburg's win at home against St Pauli was their first competitive victory in their last four games at WWK Arena, though they did win three of the four prior home matches.

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Opponents Mainz are yet to win in the Bundesliga this term, and they will be disappointed that they were unable to earn any points in their last match considering Werder Bremen's Marco Friedl was sent off in the 60th minute.

Their loss will be particularly concerning as the scoreline was 1-1 at the time of Friedl's red card, but instead of taking advantage of their numerical superiority, it was Werder Bremen who managed to find a winner through Derrick Kohn in the 69th minute.

Boss Bo Henriksen claimed in the aftermath of the match that in normal circumstances his team are just as talented as Die Werderaner but admitted that his side simply had to win once Friedl was sent off.

Henriksen's team come into Friday's clash having drawn 1-1 on August 24 in their opening Bundesliga game of 2024-25, before a 3-3 stalemate against Stuttgart in their second league match on August 31.

To their credit, Mainz's loss against Werder Bremen was the first time they have been defeated in their last 13 competitive matches, having drawn six times and won on six occasions in that period.

Team News

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Augsburg will continue to be without defender Robert Gumny due to a knee injury, as well as midfielder Reece Oxford due to illness.

The hosts also have doubts about the availability of Dimitrios Giannoulis and Frank Onyeka, who were both substituted during their match against St Pauli.

As for the visitors, the only concern that Henriksen has is about defender Andreas Hanche-Olsen, who may not feature because of a head injury.

Mainz could name the same back three that played against Werder Bremen, so expect centre-backs Dominik Kohr, Moritz Jenz and Maxim Leitsch to shield goalkeeper Robin Zentner.

Augsburg possible starting lineup: Labrovic; Bauer, Gouweleeuw, Schlotterbeck, Pedersen; Wolf, Rexhbecaj, Jakic, Maier, Vargas; Essende

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup: Zentner; Kohr, Jenz, Leitsch; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Hong, Lee; Burkardt

We say: Augsburg 1-2 Mainz 05

Although Mainz failed to take advantage of the fact their opponents were reduced to 10 men last time out, they have been difficult to beat for some time.

Additionally, Augsburg have lost many of their recent fixtures, and it would not be surprising if they lost once again on Friday.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.