Atletico Madrid would win the 2020-21 La Liga title this weekend if they beat Osasuna and second-placed Real Madrid fail to overcome Athletic Bilbao.
Diego Simeone's side are currently two points clear at the top of the division, while Osasuna sit down in 11th position in the table, having picked up 44 points from 36 matches this term.
Match preview
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Atletico have certainly had their problems in La Liga this season, but the capital giants, who are chasing their first league trophy since 2014, are very much in charge of the title race approaching the final two gameweeks of the campaign.
Simeone's side recorded a huge victory over Real Sociedad on Wednesday evening, with Yannick Carrasco and Angel Correa on the scoresheet in a 2-1 win; the success moved Atletico onto 80 points from 36 matches, and they would be guaranteed to win the title with two more victories.
As mentioned, the Red and Whites could win the league on Sunday, although they would have to beat Osasuna and then hope that second-placed Real Madrid do not overcome Athletic; if Zinedine Zidane's side do manage to win then the race will go to the final weekend of the season.
A draw for Atletico this weekend could be incredibly costly, though, as a Real Madrid win would then leave the reigning champions top of the table on the head-to-head record.
Simeone will be eyeing six more points against Osasuna and Real Valladolid to be mathematically sure of the title, and Atletico have the best home record in La Liga this term, picking up 45 points from 18 matches.
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Osasuna, meanwhile, will enter this match off the back of a 3-2 win over Cadiz last time out; the two teams were level at 1-1 entering the final 15 minutes of the contest, but Jagoba Arrasate's side scored twice through Ante Budimir and Roberto Torres to make it 3-1 before conceding a second late on.
A record of 11 wins, 11 draws and 14 defeats from 36 matches has seen Los Rojillos collect 44 points, which has left them in 11th position in the table, just two points behind ninth-placed Athletic Bilbao.
Osasuna finished 10th on their return to this level of football last season, and it has been another encouraging season for the club, who have comfortably avoided relegation back to the second tier.
Arrasate's side will certainly be looking to cause a stir in La Liga this weekend, and they have managed to either win or draw in 10 of their 18 away league matches in 2020-21.
That said, Osasuna have lost each of their last five La Liga fixtures with Atletico, including 5-0 and 3-1 defeats in the last two meetings between the two sides, which both came in 2020.
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Team News
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Atletico will be without the services of Thomas Lemar this weekend due to a hamstring problem, but Jose Gimenez, who made the bench against Real Sociedad, is available for selection.
Gimenez could get the nod over Felipe as part of a back three, while Saul Niguez is again expected to feature alongside Koke and Marcos Llorente in midfield for the title hopefuls.
Joao Felix is pushing for a spot alongside Luis Suarez in the final third of the field, but Correa was on the scoresheet against Real Sociedad and may therefore retain his position in attack.
As for Osasuna, Nacho Vidal is unavailable for selection due to a one-game ban, meaning that there could be a spot at right-back for Jonas Ramalho.
Ruben Martinez is still injured for the visitors, but Arrasate should otherwise have a full squad to choose from, meaning that the manager has a number of selection dilemmas.
Budimir is certain to feature in the final third of the field, but there are likely to be changes from the side that started against Cadiz, with Torres, Kike Barja, Sergio Herrera and Jon Moncayola in line for starts.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Gimenez, Hermoso; Trippier, Saul, Koke, Llorente, Carrasco; Suarez, Correa
Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Herrera; Ramalho, Garcia, Hernandez, Sanchez; Moncayola, Torro, Brasanac; Barja, Budimir, Torres
We say: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Osasuna
Atletico's win over Real Sociedad last time out was a big one, and we are finding it difficult to predict anything other than a home success here. Osasuna are a talented side and could cause problems, but Simeone's team should have enough to put a huge three points on the board.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 57.85%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 16.87%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.57%) and 2-1 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
