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Atletico Madrid logo
La Liga | Gameweek 18
Mar 10, 2021 at 6pm UK
Vicente Calderon Stadium
Athletic Bilbao logo

Atletico
2 - 1
Athletic Bilbao

Llorente (45+2'), Suarez (51' pen.)
Felipe (43'), Lodi (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Muniain (21')
de Marcos (38'), Vesga (41')

Preview: Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Atletico Madrid will be looking to strengthen their position at the top of the La Liga table on Wednesday, when they welcome Athletic Bilbao to the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.

The league leaders were held to a draw last time out due to a late Real Madrid equaliser, while Athletic have built a strong run of form recently, going five top-flight games without a defeat.


Match preview

Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone pictured on February 13, 2021© Reuters

Diego Simeone's men had a crucial game on Sunday when they hosted one of their title rivals - and city neighbours - Real Madrid in La Liga action.

Luis Suarez gave them the perfect start with a goal in the 15th minute, before Casemiro squared the ball for Karim Benzema to smash home a late equaliser for Los Blancos.

Before that, Los Colchoneros got back to winning ways in league action, defeating Villarreal 2-0 away from home thanks to an Alfonso Pedraza own goal and a second-half Joao Felix strike.

Simeone's men now sit three points ahead of second-placed Barcelona having played a game less than Ronald Koeman's side, with this match acting as their game in hand.

Their position at the summit of the division is largely down to a solid defensive record, as no side in the league have conceded as few as the 17 goals that the side from the capital have shipped this campaign.

While that is a trademark of a Simeone side, this season they have found a better blend of attack and defence, netting an impressive tally of 48 league goals which is only topped by Barcelona.

However, they will be hoping to put an end to a recent patch of inconsistent form which has seen them pick up just five points from their last four games, as they look to take advantage of this game in hand and go six points clear at the top of the table.

That will be a tough task as they take on an Athletic Bilbao side with some real confidence, having put together a good league run as well as advancing to the Copa del Rey final last week.

Athletic Bilbao Marcelino pictured in January 2021© Reuters

Marcelino's side secured an important win last time out, when they welcomed 10th-placed Granada to the San Mames Stadium.

Asier Villalibre gave them an early lead, but Jorge Molina equalised for the visitors with 10 minutes to go.

The game then looked set to finish 1-1, until Alex Berenguer netted an added-time winner to seal all three points for the side from the Basque country.

Before that, Marcelino's men triumphed in the second leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final tie, when they travelled to Levante for the away leg with the sides level at 1-1.

Roger Marti put the hosts ahead, but Raul Garcia equalised for Athletic soon after from the penalty spot, and with an aggregate score of 2-2, the game went to extra time when Berenguer scored the winner to see them through to the final.

Marcelino will have his sights set on a third consecutive victory here, as his team take on an Atleti side struggling to find consistency.

Atletico Madrid La Liga form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D

Atletico Madrid form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D

Athletic Bilbao La Liga form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W

Athletic Bilbao form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W


Team News

Atletico Madrid's Luis Suarez celebrates scoring against Cadiz in La Liga on January 31, 2021© Reuters

Atletico Madrid are expected to remain without centre-back Jose Gimenez, who has missed their last two matches with a muscle injury.

However, they were recently boosted by the return of Kieran Trippier, who was back in action last time out after a suspension for breaching gambling rules.

Simeone switched up his style for the tie with Real Madrid, moving to a new structure of four at the back, although they could revert back to the more familiar system of three centre-backs for this game, with Stefan Savic, Felipe and Mario Hermoso expected to form the back line.

Joao Felix will be looking to return to the starting lineup for this game, having featured off the bench in their last two matches.

Both Iker Muniain and Inaki Williams were dropped to the bench for the victory over Granada, but they are expected to return to the side for this tough encounter.

Experienced centre-back Inigo Martinez will remain absent though, as he serves a suspension for a red card shown late on against Levante.

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Felipe, Hermoso; Trippier, Llorente, Koke, Lemar, Carrasco; Suarez, Felix

Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; Capa, Nunez, Alvarez, Balenziaga; Berenguer, Vesga, Vencedor, Muniain; Williams, Garcia


SM words green background

We say: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Athletic Bilbao

With a combination of a good run of form for Athletic Bilbao and a faltering Atletico side, we see the Basque outfit taking points off Simeone's men in this game.

While Atletico's attack will be tough to contain with Suarez in clinical form, the side from the capital have struggled to maintain consistency recently, and we see that continuing with another slightly disappointing result on Wednesday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.


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