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Athletic Bilbao logo
La Liga | Gameweek 32
Apr 25, 2021 at 8pm UK
San Mames
Atletico Madrid logo
Athletic Bilbao
2 - 1
Atletico
Berenguer (8'), Martinez (86')
Sancet (44'), Vencedor (61'), Garcia (66'), Lopez (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Savic (77')
Llorente (11'), Torreira (81')

Preview: Athletic Bilbao vs. Atletico Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Atletico Madrid will be looking to stay in charge of the La Liga title race when they travel to San Mames on Sunday evening to take on an inconsistent Athletic Bilbao.

Diego Simeone's side are currently top of the table, three points clear of second-placed Real Madrid, while Athletic, who are without a win in their last six league fixtures, occupy 10th position.


Match preview

Athletic Bilbao Marcelino pictured in January 2021© Reuters

Athletic made it five straight La Liga draws on Wednesday evening when they played out a stalemate with Real Betis, with the result leaving them in 10th position in the table.

Marcelino's side have incredibly played two Copa del Rey finals this month, first losing the 2020 final to rivals Real Sociedad on April 3 before going down 4-0 to Barcelona in this year's conclusion on April 17.

The Basque outfit, as mentioned, are on a run of six games without a win in the league, with their last success coming at home to Granada on March 7.

Athletic are currently 10th in the table, some 11 points behind seventh-placed Villarreal, but they are only four points off eighth-placed Granada on the same number of matches.

Atletico Madrid's Angel Correa celebrates scoring against Huesca on April 22, 2021© Reuters

Atletico, meanwhile, returned to the top of La Liga on Thursday evening courtesy of a 2-0 win over Huesca, with Angel Correa and Yannick Carrasco finding the back of the net at Wanda Metropolitano.

Simeone's side have had a wobble in recent weeks, which has allowed Real Madrid, Barcelona and Sevilla to pull themselves into the title argument, but back-to-back victories over Eibar and Huesca have left the capital giants in charge of their own destiny entering the final straight.

Atletico could be second by the time that they enter this match as Real Madrid are in action against Real Betis on Saturday evening, but the Red and Whites would return to the summit if they avoid defeat.

Chasing their first La Liga title since 2013-14, Simeone's team will be desperate to get over the line, and they will be determined to pick up six points from their next two games against Athletic and Elche before travelling to Camp Nou to take on third-placed Barcelona on May 8.

Atletico boast comfortably the best home record in La Liga this term, but they have dropped points in six of their 15 away matches, and Athletic are certainly capable of making this a very tricky encounter.

Athletic Bilbao La Liga form:
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • D

Athletic Bilbao form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D

Atletico Madrid La Liga form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W

Atletico Madrid form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Atletico Madrid forward Luis Suarez pictured on March 10, 2021© Reuters

Athletic will again be without the services of Peru Nolaskoain, Yeray Alvarez, Iker Muniain and Yuri Berchiche on Sunday evening through injury.

Ander Capa is available after serving a one-game suspension against Betis, though, and he could return to the starting XI, which would allow Oscar de Marcos to move further forward.

Inaki Williams, Unai Lopez and Raul Garcia all started on the bench on Wednesday but should be back in the side for this match, while Dani Garcia could get the nod in the middle of the park.

As for Atletico, Jose Gimenez will serve a one-match suspension, meaning that there could be a start in the middle of the defence for Felipe.

Luis Suarez and Joao Felix are said to be in the latter stages of their recoveries from their respective injuries, and while they could make the squad, it seems unlikely that either will be in the starting XI.

As a result, Correa should lead the line with support from Marcos Llorente and Saul Niguez, while Hector Herrera is likely to hold off competition from Geoffrey Kondogbia and Lucas Torreira to feature in central midfield alongside Koke.

Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; Capa, Nunez, Martinez, Balenziaga; De Marcos, D. Garcia, Lopez, Berenguer; Williams, R. Garcia

Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Felipe, Lodi; Trippier, Herrera, Koke, Carrasco; Saul, Correa, Llorente


SM words green background

We say: Athletic Bilbao 0-1 Atletico Madrid

This is a very, very difficult game for Atletico, even taking into account Athletic's recent results. Simeone's side could potentially be boosted by the returns of Suarez and Felix, though, and we fancy the league leaders to just have enough to edge out a narrow victory at San Mames.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a draw or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Draw/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.18%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 23.21%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.07%) and 1-2 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 1-0 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico

Athletic Bilbao
19.5%
Draw
18.7%
Atletico Madrid
61.8%
123
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Atletico Madrid's Angel Correa celebrates scoring against Huesca on April 22, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Real Madrid29226164204472
2Barcelona29197360342664
3GironaGirona29195559342562
4Athletic Bilbao29168550262456
5Atletico MadridAtletico29174854342055
6Real Sociedad291210742311146
7Real BetisBetis29101273433142
8Valencia28117103232040
9Villarreal29108114751-438
10Getafe2991193742-538
11Las PalmasLas Palmas29107122932-337
12Osasuna29106133343-1036
13AlavesAlaves2988132635-932
14Mallorca29612112535-1030
15Rayo Vallecano29611122538-1329
16Sevilla29610133644-828
17Celta Vigo2969143244-1227
18CadizCadiz29313132040-2022
19Granada2828183058-2814
20Almeria29110182857-2913

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