Seeking to overturn a 2-0 first-leg deficit, Monaco welcome Braga to the Stade Louis II for the second leg of their Europa League last-16 tie on Thursday evening.
Both teams head into this fixture after suffering 1-0 league defeats, with Monaco losing away at Strasbourg, while Braga were beaten at home against Gil Vicente.
Match preview
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After a miserable run of form, Monaco have begun to implode across all competitions and they now have their work cut out in both the Europa League and Ligue 1 if they are to salvage something positive from this season.
Over the last month, the Monegasques have won only one of their last five Ligue 1 matches, slipping seven points behind the European places as a result. They have also been eliminated from the Coupe de France by Nantes as well as suffering the 2-0 defeat against Braga in their Europa League knockout tie last week.
Monaco headed into the first leg unbeaten from their six group matches, and despite dominating proceedings with 63% possession in Portugal, they rarely posed a threat in the final third, something head coach Philippe Clement will be keen to address on Thursday.
The Monegasques have now lost each of their last four meetings against Portuguese opposition, conceding 11 goals and scoring only twice in the process. At least two goals will be required on home soil if they are to advance to the last eight of the Europa League for the first time.
Monaco do, however, have a history of overturning two-goal deficits in European competition. The French outfit have progressed from each of their last two knockout ties when losing the first leg by two or more goals on the road, eliminating Juventus in the 2003-04 Champions League quarter-finals when losing the first leg 4-2, before beating Manchester City 5-3 on aggregate in the last 16 of the same competition in 2016-17.
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After losing only one of their 17 home matches in all competitions heading into last week's first leg, Braga were understandably confident of securing a positive result against Monaco, and their fans were not disappointed.
The hosts made a perfect start when Abel Ruiz opened the scoring in just the third minute, before a potentially pivotal header from substitute Vitor Oliveira flew into the back of the net in the 89th minute to help the hosts secure a 2-0 victory.
Braga would have hoped to follow up their impressive European win with another in the Primeira Liga; however, they were surprisingly beaten 1-0 at home against Gil Vicente on Sunday, a result which has seen the latter move to within one point of Carlos Carvalhal's side in fourth place.
Excluding last weekend's result, the Archbishops have enjoyed playing in front of their own supporters this season, but on the road they have struggled, particularly in European competition.
Braga have lost each of their last six away games in the Europa League knockout stages, including three of their four matches on the road this season – only Zenit St Petersburg (seven) have ever been on a longer run in the competition's history. In addition, the Archbishops have previously faced French opposition three times away from home, but have failed to win or score on each occasion.
Nevertheless, a draw or even defeat by a one-goal margin would be enough for the 2010-11 Europa League finalists to progress to the last eight on Thursday.
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Team News
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Monaco pair Guillermo Maripan and Cesc Fabregas are both doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff, while Krepin Diatta is ruled out for the rest of the season with an ACL injury.
Youssouf Fofana missed the first leg due to suspension, but the midfielder is in contention to play on Thursday and could start alongside Aurelien Tchouameni, with Eliot Matazo – who started in the first leg – dropping to the substitutes' bench.
Vanderson, Caio Henrique and Wissam Ben Yedder all began on the bench last weekend, but the trio are expected to return to the first XI at the expense of Djibril Sidibe, Ismail Jakobs and Jean Lucas respectively.
As for Braga, they will be without Nuno Sequeira and Roger Fernandes, who are both sidelined with muscle injuries.
Ruiz and Vitor Oliveira will continue to fight for the number nine position, though the former is set to get the nod on Thursday as he did last week, joining Ricardo Horta and Iuri Medeiros in attack.
Carvalhal may decide to recall either Paulo Oliveira or Diogo Leite to the back three at the expense of Fabinho, while Castro will be hoping to keep his place in centre-midfield ahead of Andre Horta, starting alongside ever-present Libya international Al Musrati.
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Vanderson, Disasi, Badiashile, Henrique; Tchouameni, Fofana; Martins, Volland, Diop; Ben Yedder
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; P. Oliveira, Carmo; Tormena; Couto, Al Musrati, A. Horta, Moura; R. Horta, Medeiros; Ruiz
We say: Monaco 1-1 Braga (Braga to win 3-1 on aggregate)
Monaco have struggled for goals of late, scoring in only one of their last three games, and they were frustrated in last week's first leg. Another challenging affair could be on the cards for the hosts on Thursday.
Braga are expected to take a more cautious approach to the second leg and even if their French counterparts do breach their backline, they should have enough resilience in their side to hold on for victory on aggregate.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 50.38%. A win for Braga had a probability of 25.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.49%). The likeliest Braga win was 0-1 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
