Arsenal’s failed quadruple bid: Assessing the Gunners' Premier League and Champions League chances with a hypothetical evaluation of title glory alone

What once appeared a dream of an unprecedented quadruple has unravelled within two weeks for Arsenal, who have suffered back-to-back domestic cup setbacks, raising fresh concern that the North London side could yet finish the campaign empty-handed.

Much has been made of the Gunners’ prospects of finally getting over the line to end their six-year wait for silverware, and for a time, it seemed they might make up for lost ground with a clean sweep of the available honours.

Rewind to mid-March, Mikel Arteta’s men were one match away from lifting the EFL Cup, had a favourable FA Cup quarter-final tie against Southampton, appeared on a relatively kinder route to the Champions League final, and were sitting comfortably at the summit of the Premier League table.

However, hopes of a quadruple quickly reduced to three after defeat to Manchester City in the mid-season showpiece before dreams of a treble suffered another blow with an embarrassing loss at St Mary’s, leaving the Arsenal faithful with mounting anxiety.

With only the Premier League and Champions League remaining as realistic avenues for silverware, Sports Mole assesses Arsenal’s chances in both competitions in this piece, while also considering how the season might be judged should they end up claiming only the domestic title, which presently appears the more attainable objective.

Assessing Arsenal’s Premier League chances

Arsenal remain firmly in control of their own destiny in the top flight, currently sitting nine points clear atop the Premier League table with seven matches left to play, albeit having played one game more than second-placed Man City.

It would therefore take a notable collapse for the North London club to surrender the domestic crown, although a potential title decider awaits on April 19 when the Gunners travel to the Etihad to face Pep Guardiola’s side.

That fixture keeps the door ajar for City, as victory in the high-stakes showdown would pile real pressure on the Gunners, who also face potential banana skins at home to Newcastle and Fulham and an away trip to a West Ham side still fighting for survival.

However, the Citizens also face a demanding run-in, including a visit to Chelsea, an away clash with a stubborn Everton side and a final-day encounter against an Aston Villa team that could still be chasing Champions League qualification.

Not many would completely rule out City from winning all their remaining top-flight games, and their recent EFL Cup triumph over Arsenal may also hand the Manchester club a psychological edge in the closing weeks.

Nevertheless, the Gunners have demonstrated resilience throughout the campaign, grinding out results even when not at their fluent best and avoiding prolonged downturns, and while it remains to be seen whether they will get over the line, the current standings suggest they remain favourites to lift the trophy.

Assessing Arsenal’s Champions League chances

Placed on the less demanding side of the knockout draw, Arsenal edged past Bayer Leverkusen in the round of 16 and now face a Sporting Lisbon side making their quarter-final debut in the competition.

Despite a slight dip in domestic momentum, the Gunners hold the upper hand on paper thanks to stronger pedigree and an impressive continental record, having won nine of their 10 matches in Europe this season, a run that saw them finish top of the league phase with a perfect record.

Should Arteta’s men progress, they would meet either Barcelona or Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals, and the North London club would still fancy their chances, though results versus the big guns have not been convincing, as reflected in their mixed performances with the Premier League’s top six this season.

History also offers little respite, with the Gunners having only once advanced past the Champions League semi-finals, making the domestic title the more attainable objective between the two remaining pursuits.

How will Arsenal’s season be judged if they win only the Premier League?

The answer might have seemed obvious a few months ago, with most Gunners fans likely happy to take the Premier League alone if offered.

Defending champions Liverpool were widely expected to retain the title, especially after their high-profile signings, and they began the season in blistering form.

But times have changed, and Arsenal, who have spent the majority of the campaign at the top, are now the favourites, with the noise of disappointment likely to be far louder if they fail to lift the trophy than any celebration would be if they do.

The shadow of a failed quadruple adds another layer to expectations versus outcome, though for a club ending a 22-year Premier League drought, even securing just the title would count as a huge success in the eyes of their fans.