The new Champions League format is now beyond the halfway stage, with the 36-team League Phase beginning to take firm shape.
It is not a shape many would have expected at this point too, with Arne Slot's Liverpool leading the way in the Champions League table as the only remaining perfect team with 15 points from five matches played.
Inter Milan, losing finalists in 2023, sit two points behind the Reds in second place, while Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund - who lock horns on matchday six in Germany - make up the top four having picked up 12 points each.
Last season's Europa League winners Atalanta BC sit fifth with 11 points, while there are as many as seven teams who have collected 10 points from their first five matches, including Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal and Monaco, who all make up the top eight courtesy of goal difference.
Some footballing giants are struggling to date, though, with Manchester City, Juventus and defending champions Real Madrid all down in 17th, 19th and 24th respectively in the 36-tam table, while Paris Saint-Germain currently sit outside the playoff spots in 25th and are at risk of an early elimination from the competition.
Here, Sports Mole takes a look at how many points should be enough to see teams progress through the League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League.
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How many points are required to reach Champions League knockouts?
The League Phase of the 2024-25 Champions League started in September and will run through to January, meaning there is a slight extension on the December end date of the previous group-stage format.
All 36 clubs will play eight times in the League Phase and the top eight teams will automatically advance to the last 16, while teams finishing between ninth and 24th must compete in a two-legged playoff round to join them. Any side that finishes 25th or lower will be eliminated with no access to the Europa League.
According to studies from Football Meets Data, who have carried out over 10,000 simulations, between 15 and 16 points will most likely be enough to see teams secure a top-eight finish and progress to the knockout rounds of the Champions League in its new format.
This would therefore mean that clubs would be required to win at least five of their eight games in the League Phase, or another combination of victories and draws to reach the 15 to 16-point marker.
Liverpool have already notched up 15 points with three games still to play, despite Opta predicting pre-tournament that Slot's men would collect 13 points in total during the League Phase, and giving them a 31.7% chance of finishing in the top eight to progress automatically to the last 16.
Meanwhile, the report from Football Meets Data finds that teams will likely need to pick up nine points from eight games if they wish to finish in the top 24 and secure at least a place in the playoff round - a tally which the top-16 sides have all already reached.
> Click here to view every 2024-25 Champions League fixture
Oliver Thomas
