Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 35.09%. A win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 30.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (6.95%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest San Lorenzo win was 1-0 (13.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.