Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 42.17%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 28.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.63%) and 1-2 (7.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.27%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 1-0 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.