Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 59.16%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Independiente Rivadavia had a probability of 15.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.36%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.17%), while for a Independiente Rivadavia win it was 0-1 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.