Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 39.93%. A win for Patronato had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Patronato win was 1-0 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.