Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sirius win with a probability of 53.68%. A win for Kalmar had a probability of 23.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sirius win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Kalmar win was 1-2 (5.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.