Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 46.96%. A win for Sirius had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Sirius win was 1-2 (7.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.