Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kalmar win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 30.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kalmar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 0-1 (8.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.