Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 2
Sep 29, 2026 5.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Levy Mwanawasa Stadium
  • Albert Kangwanda 2' goal
  • Mathews Banda 45' yellowcard
  • Owen Tembo 90' yellowcard
  • Eliya Mandanji 90'+5' goal
  • yellowcard Abdoul Sabourh Bode 45'+6'
  • yellowcard Patrice Neveu 76'

Zambia vs Togo - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Zambia

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 8.00pm
Algeria 3 - 1 Zambia

Togo

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Togo 1 - 0 Burundi

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Togo win with a probability of 39.76%. A win for Zambia had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 28.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Togo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Zambia win was 1-0 (9.54%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.

Result

Zambia 31.69% ▼ (-0.30)
Draw 28.56% ▲ (+0.08)
Togo 39.76% ▲ (+0.24)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.89% ▼ (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 67.71% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 1.5 32.29% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 2.5 42.49% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 2.5 57.51% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 21.77% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 78.23% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 4.5 11.87% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 4.5 88.13% ▲ (+0.08)

First Half Winner

Zambia 23.68%
Draw 48.91%
Togo 27.41%

Team To Score First

Zambia 42.17% ▼ (-0.02)
No Goal 11.03% ▲ (+0.03)
Togo 46.8% ▼ (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 25.76%
Equal 8 10.07%
Under 8 64.17%
Over 9 17.94%
Equal 9 7.82%
Under 9 74.24%
Over 10.5 12.27%
Under 10.5 87.73%

Zambia Goals

Over 1.5 28.94% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 1.5 71.06% ▲ (+0.27)
Over 2.5 10.97% ▼ (-0.20)
Under 2.5 89.03% ▲ (+0.21)
Over 3.5 3.49% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 96.51% ▲ (+0.11)

Togo Goals

Over 0.5 68.05% ▲ (+0.18)
Under 0.5 31.95% ▼ (-0.19)
Over 1.5 34.5% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 1.5 65.5% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 2.5 13.89% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 2.5 86.11% ▼ (-0.10)
Over 3.5 4.46% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 95.54% ▼ (-0.03)

Score analysis

Zambia 31.7%
Draw 28.56%
Togo 39.75%
Zambia
1-0 @ 9.54% ▼ (-0.02)
2-1 @ 6.62% ▼ (-0.02)
2-0 @ 5.47% ▼ (-0.07)
3-1 @ 2.63% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 2.59% ▼ (-0.05)
3-2 @ 1.52% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.33% ▼ (-0.11)
Total : 31.7%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.57% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 11.03% ▲ (+0.03)
2-2 @ 4.06%
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 28.56%
Togo
0-1 @ 11.73% ▲ (+0.07)
1-2 @ 7.86% ▲ (+0.05)
0-2 @ 7.17% ▲ (+0.05)
0-3 @ 3.66% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 3.21% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 1.82% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 4.3% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 39.75%