Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.56%. A win for Ventforet Kofu had a probability of 23.43% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.34%) and 0-2 (8.1%). The likeliest Ventforet Kofu win was 2-1 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.