Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 33.1% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.6%) and 1-3 (5.51%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.