Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 36.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.41%) and 2-0 (5.32%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 1-2 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.