Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 40.37%. A win for Hansa Rostock had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.19%). The likeliest Hansa Rostock win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.