Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 81.83%. A draw had a probability of 12% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 6.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.37%) and 0-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.68%), while for a Mariupol win it was 1-0 (2%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtar Donetsk would win this match.