Stuttgart take on Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Friday, with the hosts still searching for their first home win of the season.
Mainz recorded their own first home win of the season with a shock 3-2 victory over RB Leipzig last weekend, which moved them to within seven points of safety.
Match preview
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With just one win from their last seven matches, Stuttgart's dip in form has seen them cut adrift in the bottom half of the table.
Only FC Koln have a worse home record so far this season, but even Pellegrino Matarazzo's side's away form eluded them on Saturday in a 2-1 defeat at in-form Freiburg.
It looked like being an entirely different afternoon when Silas Wamangituka fired the visitors into the lead with his 10th Bundesliga goal of the season after only seven minutes, but Freiburg responded twice before half time through Ermedin Demirovic's deflected effort and Jeong Woo-yeong's composed finish after sloppy defending by Pascal Stenzel.
After Wamangituka was tripped by Janik Haberer, Nicolas Gonzalez's dreadful penalty was comfortably saved by Florian Muller to preserve Freiburg's lead heading into the break.
Erik Thommy and Gonzalez both struck the post in the second half, but Matarazzo's side could not find a way back into the game despite having 27 shots and 60% possession across the 90 minutes. If they play as progressively once again, though, that elusive maiden home win could finally be discovered against struggling Mainz on Friday.
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However, Mainz may have something to say about that after Saturday's surprising victory against Leipzig may provide them with a shot in the arm in terms of surviving relegation.
Bo Svensson looks to have provided his players with more belief having also gained an impressive point at Borussia Dortmund recently, but the 41-year-old will know there is a long way to go before his players can even contemplate safety.
There was an element of fortune about the win, too, with central defender Moussa Niakhate twice equalising from close range from set-pieces in the first half after Tyler Adams and Marcel Halstenberg had given the visitors the lead on two separate occasions after fine work by Marcel Sabitzer and Dayot Upamecano respectively.
Leandro Barreiro stunned the visitors with a deft near post finish after superb wing play by Danny da Costa to provide Mainz with a crucial three points, which still leaves Svensson's side five points off the relegation playoff position ahead of their trip to to Stuttgart.
Stuttgart Bundesliga form: LLWDLL
Stuttgart form (all competitions): WLWDLL
Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LLLDLW
Mainz 05 form (all competitions): LLLDLW
Team News
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Stuttgart will remain without Philipp Forster, Maxime Awoudja, Clinton Mola, Lilian Egloff and Hamadi Al Ghaddioui due to injury for the visit of Mainz.
Borna Sosa missed the trip to Freiburg with a muscle injury picked up in the defeat to Arminia Bielefeld, and is unlikely to return until mid-February.
Mainz, meanwhile, will not have Dominik Kohr, Edmilson Fernandes, Daniel Brosinski or Pierre Kunde available due to injury.
Goalscoring hero Barreiro appeared to pick up a head injury in the win against Leipzig, so may sit out the trip to Stuttgart, too.
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Mavropanos, Anton, Kempf; Coulibaly, Endo, Mangala, Wamangituka; Klimowicz, Castro; Gonzalez
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Da Costa, Oztunali, Latza, Mwene; Stoger; Quaison, Onisiwo
We say: Stuttgart 2-1 Mainz 05
With Mainz missing Barreiro and Kohr, the visitors could prove a little lightweight in midfield against Stuttgart's lightning counter-attacks.
Whether Matarazzo's side get the opportunity to transition too frequently is another matter, but we can see them narrowly eking out a first home win of the season on Friday night.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 53.09%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.46% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
