Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 56.32%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 21.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a FC Krasnodar win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.