Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 64.37%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 15.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.66%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 1-0 (4.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.