Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 66.63%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 13.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Moreirense |
66.63% ( 0.31) | 20.1% ( -0.21) | 13.26% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 46.56% ( 0.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.83% ( 0.61) | 47.16% ( -0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.6% ( 0.57) | 69.4% ( -0.58) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.74% ( 0.28) | 13.25% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.97% ( 0.57) | 40.03% ( -0.58) |
Moreirense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.67% ( 0.2) | 46.32% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.03% ( 0.16) | 81.97% ( -0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Moreirense |
2-0 @ 12.53% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 12.4% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 4.27% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.72% Total : 66.62% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 3.71% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.71% Total : 20.1% | 0-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 1.16% Total : 13.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
13 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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