Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for DC United had a probability of 25.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | DC United |
48.94% ( 0.06) | 25.18% ( -0.23) | 25.88% ( 0.17) |
Both teams to score 52.1% ( 0.85) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.25% ( 1.04) | 50.75% ( -1.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.35% ( 0.91) | 72.64% ( -0.91) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.24% ( 0.45) | 20.75% ( -0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.61% ( 0.7) | 53.39% ( -0.7) |
DC United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.74% ( 0.7) | 34.25% ( -0.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.05% ( 0.75) | 70.95% ( -0.75) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | DC United |
1-0 @ 11.17% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.79% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 4.61% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.58% Total : 48.93% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 7.62% ( -0.17) 1-2 @ 6.42% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.22% Total : 25.88% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 27 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 24 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 20 |
4 | Toronto | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
5 | DC United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 17 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 17 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 17 |
8 | Columbus Crew | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
9 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 14 |
10 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Orlando City | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 12 |
12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 12 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 22 |
2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
3 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 20 |
4 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 18 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
8 | St Louis City | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 16 |
9 | Austin FCAustin | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
10 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 11 |
11 | Dallas | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
12 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
13 | Portland TimbersPortland | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |