Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 46.55%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 27.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.