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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.71%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 16.03%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.95%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-0 (5.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
16.03% ( 0.36) | 22.27% ( -0.01) | 61.71% ( -0.35) |
Both teams to score 46.66% ( 0.78) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.32% ( 0.63) | 50.68% ( -0.63) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.41% ( 0.56) | 72.59% ( -0.55) |
RKC Waalwijk Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.5% ( 0.87) | 44.5% ( -0.86) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.47% ( 0.7) | 80.53% ( -0.69) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.06% ( 0.1) | 15.94% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.8% ( 0.18) | 45.2% ( -0.18) |
Score Analysis |
RKC Waalwijk | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 5.74% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.06% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.48% Total : 16.03% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.71% Total : 22.26% | 0-1 @ 13.02% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 11.95% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 9.68% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 7.32% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 5.93% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 3.36% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.08) 0-5 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.04) 1-5 @ 1% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.97% Total : 61.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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