Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 48.33%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.95%) and 2-0 (5.65%). The likeliest Almere City win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.