Preview: Indian Wells: Novak Djokovic vs. Jack Draper - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Back in the BNP Paribas Open fourth round, Novak Djokovic aims to reach the tournament’s last eight for the first time since 2016 when he faces Indian Wells defending champion Jack Draper on Wednesday.

The Serbian star has needed three sets in rounds two and three, but he must raise his level to get the better of the British No. 1 and advance.

Match preview

For a player tied with Roger Federer for the most titles in Indian Wells, Djokovic has not enjoyed the best of times in recent visits to California.

Having made at least six consecutive semi-finals between 2011 and 2016, winning the title four times and three-peating from 2014 to 2016, the Serbian has since failed to reach the last eight, with his best performance coming in 2017.

Last year’s second-round elimination to Botic van de Zandschulp marked his third-earliest exit in Tennis Paradise, after a first-round departure in 2006 and second-round defeats in 2018 and 12 months ago.

However, the 40-time Masters 1000 champion is back in the last 16, where he now seeks a victory over the defending champion.

By recording victory on Monday, Djokovic has now improved to 7-1 in 2026, and he goes into Wednesday looking to secure his eighth win of the year.

© Iconsport / Charles Baus/Cal Sport Media

Only Carlos Alcaraz has defeated the 38-year-old in 2026; Draper will look to become the second blot on the world No. 3’s record this season.

The British superstar may have dropped a set in the second round against Roberto Bautista Agut, but he has not lost one since.

Coming from behind to beat the Spaniard, against whom he dropped just five more games en route to a 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 success, Draper has now improved to 4-1 for the season after returning from an arm injury that kept him out for almost five months.

By defeating Francisco Cerúndolo on Monday, the three-time ATP champion has now won eight consecutive matches in the Californian desert, and the defending champion will look to extend his hot streak at the Masters event by beating the sport’s greatest player.

That outcome would certainly thrill Draper, who had suffered back-to-back losses at the event before last year’s title run, and a quarter-final against Daniil Medvedev or Alex Michelsen awaits Wednesday’s victor.

Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Kamil Majchrzak 4-6 6-1 6-2

Third round: vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-4 1-6 6-4

Jack Draper:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Roberto Bautista Agut 3-6 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Francisco Cerundolo 6-1 7-5

Head To Head

Wimbledon (2021) – First round: Djokovic 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2

Djokovic leads his head-to-head with Draper 1-0, but the pair’s only ATP Tour meeting came at Wimbledon in 2021.

The Serbian had to come from behind to secure a first-round win at the Championships en route to clinching a sixth title on the lawns of the third Major of the year.

Draper’s game has come on in leaps and bounds since then, with the British star already a Masters champion and having broken into the top 10, pointing to a much sterner test now for the 40-time Masters 1000 winner.

We say: Djokovic to win in three sets

Had this match taken place at any point up to last July, Draper might well have been fancied to get the better of the Serbian star.

However, the British No. 1 has yet to build up a surfeit of matches in his legs since returning from a five-month layoff.

That gives Djokovic a marginal fitness advantage, and the five-time champion is backed to edge out Draper and reach the quarter-finals.