Preview: Indian Wells: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Arthur Rinderknech - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Arthur Rinderknech has enjoyed a fortunate run to reach the BNP Paribas Open third round, but the Frenchman must defeat the previously unbeaten Carlos Alcaraz on Monday to advance to the last 16.

The seeded Frenchman received a first-round bye and moved into the third round after Juan Manuel Cerundolo withdrew before Saturday's match against the 26th seed, but Rinderknech needs to beat the Spanish sensation for the first time on the ATP Tour to secure his first-ever win at Indian Wells.

Match preview

Twelve wins to start the season became 13 for Alcaraz on Saturday as he defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6-2, 6-3 in 66 minutes to avoid his earliest exit at the tournament since losing to Andy Murray in the 2021 event.

That defeat has been followed by four consecutive runs to the semi-finals, with the Spaniard claiming the title on two occasions in 2023 and 2024.

Back at Tennis Paradise 12 months after his three-peat dream was ended by Jack Draper, the world No. 1 was near flawless in Saturday’s victory, saving one break point and converting three of the four opportunities created against the Bulgarian veteran.

By defeating the 34-year-old, the undeniable favourite to claim a third crown in California now holds a 21-3 career record at the tournament, and he seeks another deep run.

Seemingly far from done after his Australian Open crown, which saw him achieve the coveted Career Grand Slam, the 26-time ATP champion and nine-time victor in Masters 1000 tournaments, anything but a 14th triumph in 2026 and sixth consecutive win against his 30-year-old opponent would be a surprise.

Rinderknech entered this year's tournament without a career win at Indian Wells, and the 30-year-old has technically yet to claim a victory in California despite reaching this stage.

The Frenchman advanced to this year's third round after Martin Cerundolo withdrew due to a leg injury, resulting in a walkover for the 30-year-old.

That fortunate route has led the big-serving Rinderknech into a rematch of his encounter with the top seed in Doha last month, where the world No. 28 was unable to solve his Alcaraz puzzle.

Facing off at the Qatar Open marked the pair’s fifth meeting on the men’s tour, all of which have gone against Rinderknech, who strives to avoid a sixth consecutive defeat against the top seed.

Already a quarter-finalist in 2026, when he reached that stage in Dubai, Rinderknech is now two victories away from making the final eight at Indian Wells; however, that requires him to break a losing streak against Monday's opponent.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 6-2 6-3

Arthur Rinderknech:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo walkover

Head To Head

Doha (2026) - Round of 32: Alcaraz 6-4 7-6(5)

US Open (2025) - Fourth round: 7-6(3) 6-3 6-4

Tournament name (2025) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 7-5 6-4

Queen's Club (2023) - First round: Alcaraz 4-6 7-5 7-6(3)

US Open (2021) - Second round: Alcaraz 7-6(6) 4-6 6-1 6-4

Alcaraz leads Rinderknech 5-0 in their head-to-head, with the Spaniard aiming for a sixth victory over the Frenchman.

While their first two meetings were tough battles won by the top seed at the US Open in 2021 and Queen's Club two years later, the 26-time ATP champion has secured victories over the 30-year-old without losing a set.

Three out of their five matches have been played on hard courts, with Alcaraz winning the last two without dropping a set — at the US Open (2025) and Doha (2026) — following a four-set win in their first encounter at Flushing Meadows five years ago.

Rinderknech's only wins over top-10 players in the past 52 weeks have come from two victories over Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton, but he has lost two of his last three such matches, including both against Alcaraz.

We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets

It is hard to see anything other than an Alcaraz victory, as the Spanish sensation has inflicted two of the Frenchman’s three recent defeats against the tour’s top 10.

A flawless start to 2026 is expected to continue on Monday, with the world No. 1 likely to extend his winning streak over Rinderknech and reach another fourth-round match at Tennis Paradise.