Preview: Indian Wells: Novak Djokovic vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Meeting for the first time on a hard court, Novak Djokovic and Aleksandar Kovacevic will be seeking a place in the fourth round of the Indian Wells Open on Monday in Southern California.

On Saturday, the Serbian came from a set down to defeat Kamil Majchrzak 4-6 6-1 6-2, while Kovacevic got past Cotentin Moutet in straight sets 6-1 6-4.

Match preview

Despite a less-than-ideal start to his second-round affair, Djokovic persevered against his Polish counterpart, claiming five break points in the match.

The five-time winner of this event uncharacteristically hit five double faults in his weekend affair, while boasting a first serve percentage of only 67%.

On Monday, he can book a place in the last 16 of this tournament for the first time since 2017, with this match being his first at this stage since falling to Luca Nardi in 2024.

Djokovic has not lost a round of 32 match on tour since Chilean Alejandro Tabilo beat him at the Monte Carlo Open in Monaco last April.

On hard court surfaces this year, Djokovic has hit 48 aces while winning 85% of his service games, making up for a first-serve percentage of 68% overall on those surfaces.

He has been decent in one facet of the return game in 2026, winning 54% of his second-serve return points on hard courts this year.

For the first time in this event, Aleksandar Kovacevic is in the third round, overwhelming the 31st-ranked player in the draw this past weekend.

The New York-born right-hander only had two aces in his round of 64 contest, but played relatively error-free, without a single double fault.

He won 71% of his first serves for the match, notably converting half of his break point opportunities (3/6) to pull ahead.

In four of his last five singles events on the hard court this year, the American has advanced into the last 16, ousting Australian Adam Walton in this phase of the Acapulco Open in Mexico last month.

For the year, he has won 82% of his first serves on this surface, while boasting an impressive 92% regarding service games won.

Kovacevic can claim his third career singles triumph over a top-10 player on Monday, beating Russian Andrey Rublev twice before.

Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Kamil Majchrzak 4-6 6-1 6-2

Aleksandar Kovacevic:

First round: vs. Hubert Hurkacz 7-6 (8-6) 7-6 (7-4)

Second round: vs. Corentin Moutet 6-1 6-4

Head To Head

French Open (2023) - First round: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-2 7-6 (7-1)

The only previous meeting between these two took place at Roland Garros, when Djokovic last conquered the clay surface at the French Open and won the title in 2023.

When he faced Kovacevic early on that year, the Serbian won 82% of his first serves while converting five of his break-point opportunities to claim a relatively comfortable victory.

We say: Djokovic to win in two sets

If you cannot put Djokovic away early, you often pay the price, and his opening-set loss on Saturday could be the wake-up call he needs to be much sharper across all facets on Monday.