Preview: Indian Wells: Casper Ruud vs. Valentin Vacherot - prediction, tournament so far

On Monday, Valentin Vacherot will seek to stun another top player when he squares off with Casper Ruud in the third round of the Indian Wells Open.

Over the weekend, Ruud ousted Alexander Shevchenko 6-1 7-6 (7-4), while his upcoming Monegasque opponent took care of Nuno Borges 7-5 7-5.

Match preview

His opener was not without a few bumps in the road, but in the end, Casper Ruud took advantage of his opponent’s error.

The Norwegian did not register a single double fault in that match, while looking consistently sharp on his second serves, winning 87% of them.

He also claimed two of his six break-point opportunities to advance into this round of the event for a fourth time.

In two of his previous three appearances in the round of 32 of this tournament, he has been eliminated, though he won his last third-round match at the Indian Wells Open in 2024, defeating Frenchman Arthur Fils in straight sets.

The three-time Grand Slam finalist has only registered 23 double faults on hard court surfaces this year, while saving 75% of his break points.

At the same time, Ruud has won 89% of his service games on that surface in 2026 but only claimed 15% of his return games for the year.

© Imago / PRESSE SPORTS

A lot can happen in a year, and Valentin Vacherot is proof of that, with the 27-year-old skyrocketing up the ATP charts.

Born in southern France, he was ranked 262nd at the beginning of March 2025, but he comes into this tournament seeded 24th on the singles draw of this event.

Over that span, his play has turned heads, with the Monaco native upsetting a pair of top 10 players, including a straight-sets victory over Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals of the 2025 Shanghai Masters en route to winning that tournament.

Saturday was his first match at the Indian Wells Open, and he overcame four double faults while winning 79% of his first serves and three break points.

For the year, Vacherot has won 88% of his service games on the hard court, while displaying strong serving, registering 121 aces on that surface.

Along with that, he has saved 68% of his break points on hard courts and been able to convert 43% of them overall in 2026.

Tournament so far

Casper Ruud:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Alexander Shevchenko 6-1 7-6 (7-4)

Valentin Vacherot:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Nuno Borges 7-5 7-5

We say: Ruud to win in three sets

Vacherot has shown that he’s not intimidated by big players, but we trust Ruud's overall game, which is savvy while he makes few mistakes in early-round matches.