World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Mar 21, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Nacional de Lima

Peru
3 - 1
Bolivia

Joya (37', 37'), Guerrero (45', 45'), Flores (82', 82')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Terceros (58' pen., 58' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Peru and Bolivia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Peru

All competitions

Last Game: Argentina 1-0 Peru
Wednesday, November 20 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Bolivia

All competitions

Last Game: Bolivia 2-2 Paraguay
Tuesday, November 19 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 76.71%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 6.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.76%) and 3-0 (12.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (7.33%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peru would win this match.

Result
Peru	Draw	Bolivia
76.71% ( -0.61)	16.65% ( 0.62)	6.63% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 32.71% (

-1.77)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.47% (

-2.53)

51.52% (

2.53)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.67% (

-2.25)

73.32% (

2.24)

Peru Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.35% (

-0.86)

11.64% (

0.85)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.31% (

-1.88)

36.68% (

1.87)

Bolivia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

37.02% (

-1.62)

62.97% (

1.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

7.9% (

-0.78)

92.09% (

0.77)

Score Analysis

Peru 76.7%

Bolivia 6.63%

Draw 16.65%

Peru	Draw	Bolivia
2-0 @ 16.95% ( 0.54) 1-0 @ 15.76% ( 1.02) 3-0 @ 12.15% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 5.62% ( -0.33) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.29) 5-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.21) 3-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.15) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( -0.18) 6-0 @ 1.01% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.41% Total : 76.7%	0-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.71) 1-1 @ 7.29% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.15) Other @ 0.21% Total : 16.65%	0-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.55% Total : 6.63%