Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 88.73%. A draw had a probability of 7.4% and a win for Reading Women had a probability of 3.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (8.7%) and 3-1 (7.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.07%), while for a Reading Women win it was 1-2 (1.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City Women would win this match.