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Wolfsburg
Bundesliga | Gameweek 27
Apr 3, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
 
Koln logo
Wolfsburg
1 - 0
FC Koln
Brekalo (69')
Mbabu (22'), Gerhardt (63')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Kainz (90+3')

Preview: Wolfsburg vs. FC Koln - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Wolfsburg and FC Koln, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Wolfsburg take on FC Koln in the Bundesliga, with the visitors in desperate need of a positive result to move outside of the relegation zone.

The Wolves, meanwhile, have opened up an eight-point gap inside the Champions League qualification positions, so will be looking to continue their momentum in terms of achieving their main objective.


Match preview

Wolfsburg coach Oliver Glasner pictured on February 14, 2021© Reuters

Wolfsburg won 2-1 at Werder Bremen last time out to record their eighth league win in their last 10 matches, taking them eight points clear of fifth-placed Borussia Dortmund after Edin Terzic's side drew with Koln.

As they so often do, the Wolves began the match in Bremen in quickfire fashion, taking the lead after only eight minutes after Joshua Sargent inadvertently directed the ball into his own net from Maximilian Arnold's inswinging free kick.

Wout Weghorst doubled Oliver Glasner's side's lead a few minutes prior to the half-time interval, coolly slotting away in trademark fashion to extend his Bundesliga tally to a landmark 50 goals in only 92 appearances for the club after Xaver Schlager had superbly won the ball high up the pitch.

Kevin Mohwald struck back with a clinical finish in first half injury time, but Wolfsburg's defence comfortably held out once again to secure a crucial victory, which takes them ever closer to competing in the Champions League for the first time since reaching the quarter-final of the competition in 2016.

FC Koln players celebrate scoring against Union Berlin on November 22, 2020© Reuters

Despite gaining a creditable point against Dortmund after an entertaining 2-2 draw, meanwhile, Koln slipped into the bottom three after Mainz 05 and Hertha Berlin both won to leapfrog them in the table.

Markus Gisdol would have been hugely satisfied with his side's reaction to falling a goal behind inside three minutes to Erling Braut Haaland's superb spin and finish from Emre Can's long pass, with Ondrej Duda converting from the penalty spot after Jude Bellingham's handball to level the proceedings heading into the break.

Ismail Jakobs scored his first Bundesliga goal in over a year after a fine counter-attack saw Jonas Hector and Dominick Drexler cut right through the heart of BVB, with the pacey winger racing onto Drexler's throughball before firing high into the roof of Marwin Hitz's net.

Unsurprisingly, Dortmund pushed for an equaliser, with Haaland hitting the post with a header from Thomas Meunier's cross, before teenage debutant Ansgar Knauff raced down the right flank and laid the ball on a plate for the Norway striker to snatch a point in the 90th minute.

That loss left Koln lying in the relegation zone during the recent international break. Their chances of escaping it by at least avoiding defeat against an in-form Wolfsburg side look slim.

Wolfsburg Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Wolfsburg form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W

FC Koln Bundesliga form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D


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Team News

Wolfsburg's Renato Steffen celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates against Union Berlin on January 9, 2021© Reuters

Wolfsburg will remain without the suspended Otavio for a further two matches after his vicious tackle on Munas Dabbur against Hoffenheim last month, with Jerome Roussillon likely to be handed a start despite being snubbed by Glasner in their last two matches.

Renato Steffen is sidelined until early May with a ligament injury, while defenders Jeffrey Bruma and Marin Pongracic are both unlikely to feature due to ankle and calf issues respectively. Admir Mehmedi is also a doubt due to a calf issue sustained on international duty with Switzerland.

Koln, meanwhile, are expected to travel to Wolfsburg without Sebastian Bornauw due to a back injury, but otherwise Gisdol appears to have a clean bill of health to select from.

The 51-year-old will almost certainly choose a side without a recognised striker once again, especially with Emmanuel Dennis struggling with a knock, so former Norwich City loanee Duda will drop deep with the likes of Jakobs, Marius Wolf and Elvis Rexhbecaj expected to move into the space he leaves in behind.

Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Mbabu, Lacroix, Brooks, Roussillon; Schlager, Arnold; Baku, Gerhardt, Brekalo; Weghorst

FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Horn; Ehizibue, Mere, Czichos, Katterbach; Skhiri, Hector; Wolf, Rexhbecaj, Jakobs; Duda


SM words green background

We say: Wolfsburg 2-0 FC Koln

We expect Wolfsburg to be able to keep a Koln side lacking firepower at arm's length, with the Bundesliga's second strongest defence holding firm once again.

With Weghorst in attack, the Wolves always feel capable of scoring at least once in every match at the moment, which could prove enough to claim a crucial victory.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 63.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for FC Koln had a probability of 15.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a FC Koln win it was 0-1 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.


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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen26224066184870
2Bayern MunichBayern26193478314760
3Stuttgart26182660312956
4Borussia DortmundDortmund26148453322150
5RB Leipzig26154760322849
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt26101064235740
7Augsburg269894342135
8Hoffenheim2696114450-633
9Freiburg2696113648-1233
10Werder Bremen2686123541-630
11Heidenheim2678113544-929
12Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach26610104650-428
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin2684142542-1728
14Wolfsburg2667133144-1325
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum26510113054-2425
16Mainz 05Mainz26310132246-2419
17FC Koln2639142047-2718
18SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt2627172665-3913

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