Werder Bremen take on Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday with the hosts nervously looking over their shoulders, having only won one of their last 12 league matches.
Augsburg, meanwhile, are looking to bounce back from last weekend's heavy 4-1 defeat at home to Stuttgart, whom they can climb back above in the table by beating Bremen.
Match preview
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Bremen may be struggling for victories this season, but Florian Kohfeldt's side are proving tougher to beat than last season, when they lost more than half of their games and were forced to overcome Heidenheim in a relegation playoff as a result.
Indeed, their impressive point gained at Bayer Leverkusen last weekend was their sixth 1-1 draw of the season already.
After a disappointingly dour first half in which the hosts failed to take the initiative, former Leverkusen defender Omar Toprak punished his former side's lack of intent with a close-range finish from a devilishly in-swinging free kick. Patrik Schick managed to bundle the ball home to level the proceedings with 20 minutes remaining, but Kohfeldt's side always looked comfortable in holding out for a well-earned draw.
However, the 38-year-old will be aware that his side require a victory soon in order to put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone, with 16th-placed FC Koln only four points behind Bremen. A home tie against Augsburg represents a decent opportunity of achieving that, but a more positive mindset from his players may be necessary in order to get over the line.
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Augsburg, meanwhile, have had a fairly patchy season, but they do have a healthier eight-point cushion ahead of the bottom three, so any relegation concerns are firmly on the back burner for now.
However, Heiko Herrlich will have been hugely disappointed with his side's performance in the 4-1 defeat to Stuttgart, and as such will be demanding a positive response ahead of the trip to Bremen.
His side suffered from a dreadful start which gave them a mountain to climb, with Nicolas Gonzalez's penalty and Silas Wamangituka's close-range strike giving the visitors a 2-0 lead heading into the half-time interval. However, after Ruben Vargas raced in behind and laid the ball on a plate for Marco Richter to convert in the first minute of the second half, Augsburg had legitimate hopes of mounting a comeback.
A combination of Gonzalo Castro's fine finish and Richter turning from hero to zero with a cynical trip on Waldemar Anton earning the forward a second yellow card put paid to those aims, though, with Daniel Didavi sealing the rout late in the game.
Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: LLLWLD
Werder Bremen form (all competitions): LLWWLD
Augsburg Bundesliga form: LDWLWL
Augsburg form (all competitions): DWLLWL
Team News
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Bremen are likely to be without Christian Gross and Patrick Erras due to injury, with Nick Woltemade unavailable due to a virus.
Ludwig Augustinsson and Milot Rashica are slight doubts. Rashica returned to training earlier this week after his recent hamstring issues, so could be named on the substitutes' bench.
Augsburg will be without Richter for the trip to Bremen after the forward's dismissal against Stuttgart.
Herrlich is also unlikely to be able to call on Felix Gotze, Raphael Framberger, Fredrik Jensen or Jan Moravek due to injury.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Veljkovic, Toprak, Friedl; Selassie, Mbom, Eggestein, Augustinsson; Bittencourt; Sargent, Fullkrug
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Oxford, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai; Caligiuri, Strobl, Gruezo, Iago; Hahn, Niederlechner, Vargas
We say: Werder Bremen 1-1 Augsburg
Only the bottom four sides have scored fewer goals than these two teams in the Bundesliga this season, so it is hard to envisage a goal fest.
With Bremen drawing six of their 15 games this season 1-1, it would not be a surprise to see the same scoreline against an Augsburg side which has scored eight and conceded eight in their seven games on the road this season.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 38.47%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 34.59% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 0-1 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.
