Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 55.32%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Cardiff MU had a probability of 20.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.45%) and 1-2 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Cardiff MU win it was 1-0 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.