Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 62.55%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 16.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.13%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-0 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.