Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 56.58%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 20.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.94%) and 1-2 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 1-0 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bala Town would win this match.