VfL Bochum will be looking to confirm their Bundesliga survival when they welcome Augsburg to the Vonovia Ruhrstadion on Sunday afternoon.
Whilst the hosts are all but safe at the bottom end of the table, the visitors remain in danger of the drop following successive defeats in their last two outings.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite picking up just four points over their last five games, Bochum are on the brink of confirming their stay in the Bundesliga for another season.
After beginning the campaign slowly following their promotion from the 2.Bundesliga last campaign, an excellent run leading up to the winter break has set Thomas Reis's side up for a successful season.
Eight points now separate Die Unabsteigbaren from Stuttgart in the relegation playoff spot, and with a 10-point gap between themselves and Arminia Bielefeld in the automatic relegation zone, Bochum can ensure mathematical survival with a positive result against Augsburg.
This despite being comfortably beaten 3-0 at top-four hopefuls Freiburg last weekend, with Sunday's hosts struggling to create anything of note to haul them back into the encounter after falling two goals behind early on.
Konstantinos Stafylidis rounded off a miserable day for Bochum when he received a straight red card for an aggressive challenge midway through the second half, but the result is highly unlikely to have much of an impact on their league status come May.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, a disappointing 1-0 defeat at home to fellow relegation-threatened side Hertha Berlin last time out means Augsburg's survival hangs in the balance.
A fantastic spell of three wins from four games had previously hauled Fuggerstadter out of the relegation places and looked to put them on the brink of safety, but with last weekend's defeat following a narrow defeat at league leaders Bayern Munich, there remains work to be done.
Although it will do little to erase the disappointment of suffering a loss to a desperately struggling Hertha side at the WWK Arena, Augsburg boss Markus Weinzierl will take some positives from the fact that his side did not perform too badly last Saturday.
Some missed opportunities in front of goal came back to haunt them however, as they failed to pull themselves further away from danger as expected.
Just four points are now keeping Augsburg above Stuttgart in the relegation playoff spot, and six above Bielefeld in the drop zone, so another setback at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion could well drag them back into the fight ahead of the final three games of the campaign.
With Hertha and Stuttgart facing off in a huge clash later on Sunday, Augsburg will be eager to pick up all three points to pile the pressure on their relegation rivals ahead of their meeting at the Olympiastadion.
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Following his red card last time out, Stafylidis will serve the first of his three-game suspension for Bochum on Sunday, with Elvis Rexhbecaj set to deputise in central midfield in his place.
Reis has just one other absentee to contend with though, with Danilo Soares likely to miss the clash with Augsburg due to a bruised knee that he picked up in last weekend's defeat.
Christopher Antwi-Adjei looks set to return to the squad after missing the last two games through injury, but the winger is unlikely to return to the starting 11 immediately.
As for the visitors, Noah Sarenren Bazee and Tobias Strobl remain sidelined due to serious knee injuries, whilst Felix Uduokhai and Florian Niederlechner are labelled as doubts due to a thigh injury and illness respectively.
Weinzierl is likely to freshen up his front line after the disappointment of last weekend, with Alfred Finnbogason likely to drop out the starting 11 for Andi Zeqiri or Ricardo Pepi.
Mads Pedersen is also likely to make way for the more attack-minded Ruben Vargas on the left-hand side in Weinzierl's 4-4-2 setup.
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Gamboa, Bella-Kotchap, Leitsch, Bockhorn; Rexhbecaj, Losilla, Lowen; Asano, Polter, Blum
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Iago; Hahn, Maier, Dorsch, Vargas; Gregoritsch, Pepi
We say: VfL Bochum 2-1 Augsburg
With Bochum enjoying a strong home record in the Bundesliga this season, and Augsburg struggling on their travels, we can see the hosts coming out with a narrow victory on Sunday.
It is likely to be a tight encounter between two evenly-matched sides, but Bochum should manage to edge out their visitors to confirm the extension of their stay in the top flight for another season.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 51.46%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 24.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.64%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
