Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Omaha win with a probability of 39.85%. A win for Indy Eleven had a probability of 34.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Omaha win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Indy Eleven win was 1-0 (8.22%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.