Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indy Eleven win with a probability of 38%. A win for St. Louis City II had a probability of 37.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indy Eleven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.98%) and 2-0 (5.49%). The likeliest St. Louis City II win was 1-2 (8.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.