Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indy Eleven win with a probability of 44.61%. A win for Des Moines Menace had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indy Eleven win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Des Moines Menace win was 0-1 (7.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.